By AnchorNews Reporter

ABUJA - The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, has warned that reinstating petrol subsidy could trigger capital flight, weaken the naira and push the exchange rate to as high as ₦4,000 per dollar.

Oyedele, however, faces opposition from the African Democratic Congress (ADC), which has challenged the Federal Government to provide evidence supporting the projection, describing it as an attempt to discourage debate over fuel subsidy removal.

The minister issued the warning during a press briefing at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, where he argued that reversing the government's economic reforms could undermine investor confidence and worsen Nigeria's economic challenges.

According to him, even the suggestion that President Bola Tinubu's administration was considering restoring petrol subsidy could trigger negative reactions in domestic and international financial markets.

He explained that investors were concerned about the possibility of a policy reversal ahead of the next election cycle, adding that uncertainty could increase borrowing costs and put further pressure on the naira.

Oyedele warned that wealthy Nigerians, business owners and middle-class investors could also move their assets into dollars to protect their wealth, thereby increasing demand for foreign exchange.

He said the consequences could include higher import costs, rising prices of goods and services, and additional hardship for ordinary Nigerians.

The minister also clarified that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited's temporary reduction in petrol retail margins should not be interpreted as a return to subsidy, explaining that it was a commercial decision rather than a payment funded by public resources.

However, the ADC Presidential Campaign Council has rejected the minister's position, demanding that the government publish the economic model used to arrive at the projected exchange rate.

The council's Director of Media and Publicity, Kola Ologbondiyan, accused the government of using fear to suppress public discussion about the possible restoration of petrol subsidy.

Ologbondiyan argued that Nigerians deserved verifiable economic evidence rather than alarming projections about the consequences of changing the policy.

He questioned how the reinstatement of subsidy would automatically cause the naira to depreciate to ₦4,000 per dollar and challenged the minister to disclose the calculations behind the forecast.

The ADC spokesman also maintained that subsidy proposals should be evaluated on their economic merits, noting that other countries operate different forms of subsidies to support production and economic activities.

The party's presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, has promised to restore fuel subsidy if elected, arguing that the policy could help cushion the economic hardship confronting Nigerians.

Meanwhile, President Tinubu has reiterated that he has no regrets about removing petrol subsidy, insisting that the country cannot return to what he described as the failed economic arrangements of the past.

Speaking at a gathering organised by the City Boy Movement in collaboration with the Relax, Tinubu Is Fixing Nigeria movement at the Presidential Villa, Abuja, the President defended his administration's reforms and urged Nigerians to remain supportive.

Tinubu said the decisions were necessary to address the country's economic difficulties and establish a more sustainable foundation for national development.

He also praised the City Boy Movement for mobilising young people in support of his administration and encouraged eligible citizens to obtain their Permanent Voter Cards and participate actively in elections.

Vice President Kashim Shettima also defended the government's economic policies, arguing that the economy could have collapsed if the President had failed to take what he described as far-reaching decisions.

Shettima cited economic growth and the country's foreign reserves as indicators of progress, while acknowledging that Nigerians had experienced significant hardship.

He expressed optimism that government interventions to address agricultural challenges would help bring down food prices in the coming weeks.

The debate over petrol subsidy remains a major economic and political issue in Nigeria, with the Federal Government insisting that maintaining its reforms is necessary for long-term stability, while opposition figures argue that alternative policies are needed to reduce the burden on citizens.

The latest disagreement highlights the continuing divide over whether restoring petrol subsidy would provide meaningful relief to Nigerians or expose the economy to additional fiscal and foreign exchange pressures.