By Chimdiogo Amuh 

Nigeria’s average crude oil production, including condensate, rose by 7 per cent year-on-year to 1.652 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first 11 months of 2025, compared with 1.544 million bpd recorded in the corresponding period of 2024, data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) have shown.

Despite the improvement, output fell short of the Federal Government’s 2025 budget benchmark of 2.06 million bpd. The country also failed to meet the budget’s oil price assumption of $75 per barrel and the exchange rate benchmark of ₦1,400 to the dollar during the period under review.

On a month-on-month basis, crude oil production stood at 1.599 million bpd in November 2025, representing a marginal increase from 1.597 million bpd recorded in October.

Findings by Vanguard indicate that the shortfall in output and revenue assumptions prompted the Federal Government to adopt more conservative benchmarks for the 2026 fiscal year.

While the 2025 budget was based on an ambitious oil production target of 2.06 million bpd, the government has revised its assumptions for 2026 to a crude oil price of $64.85 per barrel, daily production of 1.84 million barrels, and an average exchange rate of ₦1,400 to the dollar.

Presenting the 2026 budget to the National Assembly, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu said the fiscal plan, titled “Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity,” is aimed at sustaining macroeconomic stability, boosting competitiveness, and ensuring inclusive growth.

According to the President, oil production has improved due to enhanced security, technology deployment, and ongoing sector reforms, while non-oil revenues have expanded through improved tax administration.

He added that investor confidence is gradually returning, as reflected in increased capital inflows, renewed project financing, and stronger private-sector participation. Tinubu further disclosed that Nigeria’s external reserves rose to a seven-year high of about $47 billion as of the previous month, providing over 10 months of import cover and strengthening the country’s buffer against external shocks.