Nigeria’s fiscal stability is under growing pressure following revelations that vast sums approved for capital projects in the 2025 budget were largely not released to ministries, departments, and agencies (MDAs), raising concerns about budget credibility and economic growth prospects.

Investigations and disclosures at the National Assembly show that only ₦9.13 billion—about 1.3%—was released from a combined ₦1.218 trillion capital allocation to eight ministries, leaving a staggering 98.7% funding gap. The findings emerged during budget defence sessions for the 2026 fiscal year, where ministers and agency heads detailed severe shortfalls in fund releases.

The situation reached a critical point when Muhammad Ali Pate, Minister of Health and Social Welfare, disclosed that his ministry received just ₦36 million—approximately 0.02%—out of its ₦218 billion capital budget. The revelation sparked outrage among lawmakers, particularly within the House of Representatives, and intensified scrutiny of the country’s budget implementation process.

Similar patterns were observed across multiple ministries. The Ministry of Women Affairs reportedly received only 0.44% of its capital allocation, while the Ministries of Transportation, Housing, Water Resources, Agriculture, and Marine & Blue Economy all recorded releases of between 1% and 2% of approved funds. These shortfalls have resulted in stalled infrastructure projects, delayed healthcare upgrades, and postponed development initiatives.

Officials from the Federal Ministry of Finance attributed the underfunding to Nigeria’s cash-based budget implementation system, which ties spending to actual revenue inflows. However, analysts argue that deeper structural issues are responsible, including persistent revenue shortfalls, high debt servicing obligations, weak cash management, and competing recurrent expenditures.

Economic experts warn that the failure to fund capital projects undermines Nigeria’s ambition of achieving a $1 trillion economy by 2030. According to analyst Ali Musa, the widening gap between budget approvals and actual releases risks turning the national budget into a “speculative document” rather than a functional economic tool.

Further criticism highlights policy coordination challenges within the government. Ambrose Omordion noted that despite ongoing borrowing and increased oil revenues, poor coordination in resource allocation continues to hinder effective implementation of development plans.

Other financial experts, including Tajudeen Olayinka and Tunde Abidoye, emphasized that inadequate capital expenditure weakens infrastructure, raises production costs, and limits Nigeria’s global competitiveness. They warned that continued underfunding could slow economic growth, increase borrowing, and sustain inflationary pressures.

The implications are already visible. In the health sector, planned hospital upgrades and procurement of medical equipment have stalled. Infrastructure projects in transportation and housing have been rolled over into subsequent budgets, creating a cycle of repeated allocations without execution.

In response, lawmakers are demanding reforms, including stricter oversight of the treasury, improved transparency in fund releases, and mandatory quarterly reporting on capital expenditure. There are also calls for more realistic budgeting practices and better alignment between fiscal policy and revenue projections.

Analysts agree that unless the government improves revenue generation and ensures consistent funding of capital projects, Nigeria’s development agenda risks being trapped between ambitious plans and weak implementation.