The leadership crisis rocking the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is set to move to the Supreme Court, with political observers warning that the prolonged legal battle could undermine the opposition coalition's chances ahead of the 2027 general elections. While the apex court is expected to determine the legitimacy of the party's leadership and organisational structure, analysts believe the greater challenge may be the political consequences of months of internal disputes that have overshadowed the coalition's campaign preparations.

The dispute centres on rival factions led by former Senate President David Mark and former presidential candidate Dumebi Kachikwu, both of whom have laid claim to the leadership of the party. The controversy deepened after the Court of Appeal upheld an earlier judgment of the Federal High Court restraining the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) from recognising state congresses conducted by committees appointed by the David Mark-led National Working Committee (NWC).

In its decision, the appellate court held that, in line with the ADC constitution, only duly elected state executive committees have the constitutional authority to conduct state congresses. It also ruled that the congresses and subsequent national convention organised under the Mark-led leadership were inconsistent with an earlier court order, thereby rendering them invalid.

Despite the ruling, the David Mark faction has approached the Supreme Court, maintaining that the judgment neither removed its leadership nor affected candidates already submitted to INEC for the 2027 elections. The faction insists that its candidates, including those contesting key national positions, remain valid pending the final determination of the matter by the apex court.

Constitutional lawyer Liborous Oshoma said the Supreme Court would primarily determine whether the disputed congresses were organised by constitutionally recognised party organs or by caretaker committees without the legal authority to conduct them. According to him, the outcome of the case could have far-reaching implications beyond the party's state executive committees and may ultimately affect the validity of nominations arising from the disputed processes.

Political analysts believe that while the legal questions may eventually be resolved, the prolonged litigation is already affecting the opposition coalition's readiness for the 2027 elections. They note that instead of focusing on policy development, voter engagement and nationwide mobilisation, the party has remained preoccupied with court proceedings, leadership tussles and competing claims to its organisational structures.

The David Mark-led leadership currently retains control of candidates uploaded to the INEC portal, including the coalition's presidential ticket reportedly featuring former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi, as well as numerous legislative candidates. However, analysts warn that should the Supreme Court uphold the Court of Appeal judgment, fresh questions could arise regarding the validity of those nominations and the authority under which they were submitted.

Conversely, if the apex court overturns the Appeal Court's decision, the coalition may secure legal certainty over its leadership but would still face the challenge of rebuilding internal cohesion and restoring public confidence after months of political uncertainty. Observers argue that prolonged legal disputes often weaken opposition parties by diverting attention from electoral campaigns, discouraging supporters and creating uncertainty among stakeholders.

Although some opposition politicians have alleged that continuous litigation indirectly benefits the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), there is no verified evidence linking the judiciary or INEC to any political interference in the matter. Nonetheless, analysts agree that unresolved internal disputes have historically weakened political parties regardless of external influences.

Nigeria's political history provides several examples of the consequences of prolonged intra-party crises. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) spent years resolving its leadership dispute between Ali Modu Sheriff and Ahmed Makarfi before the 2019 elections, while the APC lost control of Zamfara State after the Supreme Court nullified its participation in the 2019 governorship election over irregular primaries.

Political observers believe the ADC now faces a similar crossroads. They argue that regardless of the eventual Supreme Court verdict, the coalition must move quickly to resolve internal divisions if it hopes to present itself as a credible alternative to the ruling APC in the 2027 general elections. With critical electoral timelines approaching, many believe the greatest threat to the coalition may not be the legal battle itself, but the valuable time and political momentum already lost to months of internal conflict.